Economy: Get Ready For A Sluggish Second Half

Nice article from a group of industry experts....

Get Ready For A Sluggish Second Half
Christian Menegatti, Rachel Ziemba, Prajakta Bhide and Nouriel Roubini ,
08.05.10, 06:00 AM EDT

The recovery will be rocky, the risk of policy gridlock is high and exit strategies will remain uncoordinated.

After predicting that 2010 would be a "Year of Two Halves,” we'd like to say we've been pleasantly surprised by recent data. Instead, a string of releases in the past two weeks has made it clear that the sluggish second half is here.

Since the end of 2009 we have been emphasizing that the recovery would be multispeed--or at least two-speed--with much of the advanced world displaying a below-trend, anemic growth pace and the emerging world showing a more V-shaped recovery. Now, the global macroeconomic deterioration that we still see emerging in the second half of 2010 increasingly is becoming the consensus view. In much of the advanced world this low growth will feel like a recession even if these economies technically avoid a double dip. Meanwhile, emerging markets are showing that even their more robust recoveries are not insulated from the slowdowns and structural adjustments in advanced economies. We have never been subscribers to the decoupling thesis and believe that emerging markets also will have to partially adjust to a "New Normal."

Read the entire article at the link above.

Have a Great Day!

Erik Plesset